Oh Hell, They Don't Vote Anyway

Just caught the chatter on "This Week" about HRC's May 12 speech at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce convention- the one where she scolds our generation for our laziness.

Verbally boxing our ears for our overindulgent, spoiled lifestyle, she let fly that "a lot of kids don't know what work is. They think work is a four-letter word." She went on to say that "America didn't happen by accident. A lot of people worked really hard. They've got to do their part, too" after berating us for expecting $50, ooo and $75,000 year jobs right out of college. I'm not sure who Hillary's sample is here, because the young people I know are too busy volunteering in nursing homes or elementary schools and working on research and theses to be comparing potential salaries with a microscope, but I suspect it might be skewed by the only young person making that kind of money right out of school that I know of: as the NY Post article points out, Chelsea Clinton, now at McKinsey in New York, is being rewarded for her hard work to the tune of six figures.

Apparently among the more "centrist" (read: GOP) postures Hillary's adopting is cranky, Bob Dole-esque rhetoric that kids today have no work ethic, but I have a hard time imagining such a message resonating in an economy where everyone is working hard to make ends meet- and in an America where parents love and respect their children. It's Bush league politics, too (pun intended), to play one demographic up by scapegoating another. Apparently Hillary thinks the quickest path to the White House is on the backs of young people- I hope she likes knocking on doors, making phone calls, and registering voters herself.

Netroots = Grassroots?

Dailykos.com founder, Markos Moulitsas, has an op-ed in today’s Washington Post, discussing Hillary Clinton’s vulnerabilities as she seeks the ’08 nomination. He argues, among several points, that HRC’s lack of attention and respect for the blogosphere will be her downfall ’08.

As much as they try to distance themselves from the D.C. party insiders, many popular bloggers would like nothing more than to play kingmaker. Moulitsas’ conclusion that Hillary’s biggest obstacle is online is way far out in left field. While political blogs continue to proliferate, the question remains, who’s really listening? The shrieks of online activists claiming self importance seems to point to the fact that they still need to demonstrate it. Bloggers have had a few high-profile victories – the support they rallied for Paul Hackett in the Ohio 02 special election, “Rather-gate”, and similar occurances. The question is, however, does elite attention to the netroots translate into a populist, grassroots movement?

Quite honestly, right now the answer is no. The majority of the most popular blogs are run by professionals who are themselves political insiders. While bloggers proclaim the democratic nature of the blogosphere, the reality is that the hurdles to achieving another Daily Kos or MyDD are almost insurmountable without the sort of investments and marketing plan put together by people like Arianna Huffington. Moulitsas holds up Howard Dean’s ’04 candidacy, and his proximity to gaining the nomination, as proof of the power of online activist. Yet, post-election studies showed that Dean’s supporters were overwhelmingly white and wealthy. Last time I checked, those were the people who were already part of the D.C. power structure.

People who read and are influenced by political blogs necessarily overcome the high level of political acuity necessary to understand the content. By and large, bloggers and their readers are not the Midwestern soccer moms and rural farmers that the Democratic party needs to bring in to regain a majority. Blogs haven’t yet proved that they can efficiently bring hoards of new people to the table – they’re providing yet another venue for the same elites.

Moulitsas may criticize Clinton for failing to pay attention to the blogosphere, but in reality it may be a smart move. Democrats who pander to the liberal, online constituency are repeatedly tagged by the “MoveOn” stigma, a label the general public fails to find particularly endearing. Clinton has determined to be the candidate of DLC democrats – notoriously at odds with the blogosphere. While Moulitsas warns of the netroots influence, he has produced no evidence of their overwhelming control of primary voters. Yes, primary voters are typically more engaged in politics, activists if you will. But as far I can tell, they are no more willing to let Moulitsas dictate the appropriate candidate to then Harry Reid.

Moulitsas warns that should Clinton continue to avoid the netroots, it will throw its fundraising support behind more appealing candidates, such as Mark Warner or Russ Feingold. That threat may scare other candidates, but last time I checked Clinton don’t need no money from nobody. Clinton’s biggest ’08 problem will be convincing the diverse constituencies of the Democratic Party that she can relate to all of them. And if her husband’s two electoral victories show anything, it’s that a Democrat can win without carrying along the left left wing. Moulitsas and the netroots have really yet to demonstrate the electoral power they keep blogging about. And until they do, candidates like Clinton will continue to ignore them.

Democrats for Steele?

MD Sen – Democrats for Steele? The race hype in the Maryland Senate race may have just ran into a stumbling block. A Gonzales Marketing & Research Poll tested Dem frontrunners Rep. Ben Cardin and former NAACP Chair Kweisi Mfume against Republican nominee Lt. Governor Michael Steele. Both Dems lead in a head to head match-up with Steele but Cardin’s margin is 14 points (49%-35%) compared to Mfume’s 5 (44%-39%).

It really gets interesting when the numbers are broken down for race and party identification. GOP support for Steele hardly wavers when there’s a white Democratic opponent. Cardin garners 6% of Republican voters compared to Mfume’s 4%. However, Dem support for the Democratic candidate falls from Cardin to Mfume by seven points to under 70%. That’s a very significant drop in Democratic support for their own party which should have the party leadership and Mfume’s campaign very concerned.

Broken down for race, black support for the Democratic candidate goes up six points from Cardin to Mfume (72% and 78%, respectively.) Steele gets 21% of the black vote against Cardin, which should be a concern for Democrats, but only in a tight race. White respondents, however, marginally switch their support from Democrat to Republican depending on whether the Democratic candidate is white. Cardin draws in more white voters (by 3%) than Steele, but Mfume loses white voters to Steele by 12%. Steele’s support among white voters increases 7% when he faces another African-American. Interestingly, the percentage increase in Steele’s support among whites when head to head with Mfume is the same percentage decrease in Mfume support among Democrats.

Political chatter has been anticipating a significant decrease in GOP and white support for Steele if he faces Cardin in the general election. The numbers in this poll, however, show only a marginal fall-off in white and Republican support. The real surprise comes in the number of Democrats who appear to be defecting to Steele should Mfume be the candidate. That sentiment should help Cardin in the primary, where according to the Gonzales poll, he holds an 8 point lead over Mfume, 39% to 31%. Coincidentally, almost the same percentage of Dems who would rather have Senator Steele than Senator Mfume.

Thank God There's Men To Help Me Make Decisions

Its not nice to stand up the VEEP

Tom Kean Jr, the Republican who wants to challenge Senator Menendez of New Jersey in November, invited Vice President Dick Cheney to a fundraiser yesterday. Mr. Keen stood Dick up. He apparently took Rt. 1 through NJ instead of the Turnpike, getting stuck in hours of traffic. If you can't figure out how to drive across your state, there's a chance that you shouldn't get to represent it. Then again, maybe he was just scared that Cheney brought some bird shot.

Bimbo for FL Senate

Katherine Harris, of 2000 recount fame, is trying to run for Senate against Bill Nelson. Things haven't be going so hot...no one seems to like her. Democrats (of course) don't like her, donors don't seem to like her, her own party tried to get her out of the race. Why? Because they think she's a big, fat loser.

The solution? Harris when on FOX's "Hannity and Colmes" last week to announce that she's committing $10 million of her own money to the campaign. Apparently, that's her inheritance from her father. Must be nice...

Hotline's "Wake-Up Call" has this morning that Harris will be appearing on ABC's Nightline tonight. Maybe she's though better of it and decided that her money would be better spent on more plastic surgery...or some hot blue eyeshadow.

The Case for Mark Warner

Dem consultants Stan Greenberg and Matt Hogan have put together a report on the groups they believe that Dems need to target in '06 in order to win. Looking ahead to '08, look at these groups and tell me Mark Warner isn't the man to bring them over. Many of these groups contributed to his victory in '01 in Virginia. (Courtesy of The Hotline).

* White rural voters (19% of electorate) whose "desire for change still far exceeds their support for" Dems. The %age of them supporting Dems trails the %age "who reject Bush's policy direction" by 8 points.
* White older non-college voters (26%) who favored GOPers by 18 points in '04 but favor the GOP by just 2 points now, thanks to health care costs and retirement security concerns. "A proposal to replace the current prescription drug benefit could go a long way towards solidifying this support, as these voters are very receptive to an alternative plan."
* White college men (18%) who support GOPers by a 6-point margin, less than 1/3 the margin in '04. "These voters overwhelmingly support any attempt to balance the budget" and "recognize the importance of reducing our dependence on foreign oil."
* Gen X voters (18%) "want change but that has not translated into a preference for" Dems in generic congressional ballots. Dem positions on alternative energy and against cuts in student loan funding "could help" Dems.
* White unmarried women (15%) are concerned with Iraq and harmful economic policies and favor Dems by 24 points, double the margin of '04, but remain about 1/5th of the Dem undecided and winnable votes. Prescription drug alternatives are important here, too, as 2/3rds of these women are over 50. Dems must also focus on mobilizing them, as while they make up 20% of the registered voters, they constitute just 15% of the electorate.
* Union households (20%) favor Dems by the same 24-point margin they did in '04, and while they're more conservative than other Dems, "their frustration over the economic policies of the current" admin "leaves the door open" for Dems (release, 3/15).

Virginia Senate Update

2005 Democratic candidate for Lt. Governor Leslie Byrne endoresed Jim Webb this morning. This is a major endorsement for Webb for several reasons. Byrne is an established figure of the state Democratic Party, having served in the State Senate and in Congress before launching her bid for state-wide office in 2005. She won a four-way primary for the LG nomination, raising her statewide name id. The endorsement of such a well-known Democratic figure (and one known for consistently liberal positions) is a huge boon to Webb's campaign. Not only does it highten his level of credibility within the race, but it also helps to squash the concerns that Webb isn't really a Democrat. Bryne's endoresment raises Webb's worth and reliability in the eyes of Democratic primary voters, which is essential for him to compete with the bonafide liberal Harris Miller.

Additionally, Byrne's endoresment helps to bury the allegations of sexism which have been dogging Webb in the past week. As a Navy officer and more recently as retired Secretary of the Navy, Webb has repeatedly taken public positions opposing women in the military. Leslie Byrne is known as a liberal Democrat and feminist around the state. Her support for Webb helps him to bury the sexism allegations and yet again win over Democratic primary voters who may have been unsure of his opinions.

How all of this will play in the general election, however, is another story. Byrne narrowly lost the Lt. Governor's race in what was an overwhelmingly partisan and bitter race against a Republican who is as conservative as she is liberal. George Allen is very good at trashing his opponents and a Byrne endoresment is prime ammunition for that. However, I doubt that that alone is motivation enough for Republicans to come on en masse to vote against James Webb, should he win the nomination. To the contrary, the Byrne endorsement gives Webb Democratic credibility, which will be essential in this race. Governor Kaine's victory shows that there are enough Democrats and swing votes in Virginia to turn out to vote for a moderate (or against a particularly offensive conservative.) If the President and Congress's poll numbers continue to trend in the mid 30's or lower, Republican turnout is likely to be depressed in the midterm election, significantly benefiting Democratic candidates. However, those Democrats can really only benefit if they can also turn out their own supporters. Here is where Byrne's endoresment comes in for Webb. Virginia Democratic diehards have been threatening to stay home in November if Webb wins the nomination in June. That threat hurts not only Webb, but all of the Democrats running for Congress across the state. Byrne's endorsement helps solidify Webb within the party and help him build the credibility he needs to turn out the Democrat base, not only for himself, but also for Congressional candidates.

Leslie Byrne is no fool.

Why I Heart Mark Warner

The New York Times Magazine profiled Warner this past Sunday. Here's what he had to say about the type of presidential campaign that he would run. "If I choose to go down this path, it's going to be more about what I'm for than what I'm against." I heart politicians who know what its really about.